Here we are, just living in the credits at the end of the movie.
— Sheila Heti, Pure ColourWhat happened to us? When did progress become so ugly?
— Dana Spiotta, WaywardIt is hard to remember, now, what it felt like to live in that space between two futures, fitting our whole lives into the gap between fear and certainty.
— Jessie Greengrass, The High House
Recently, I took part in Jane McConnell’s Future 2043 survey in which participants were invited to consider questions about a range of topics including urbanisation, education, healthcare, technology, wealth distribution, art, science, beliefs, governance and climate change. One question focused on employment and the effects of corporate consolidation, automation and artificial intelligence, with respondents asked to consider whether these and other factors might result in increased or decreased job opportunities in the next twenty years. As with so many of my responses to the survey, I found myself caught between two stools when addressing the topic, offering up both/and arguments. It was not my intention to be non-committal, it’s just that the in-between is more interesting than the extremes.
As any advocate of adaptive leadership practices – or of Marshall McLuhan’s Tetrad – will inform us, innovation and transformation always deliver both gains and losses, balancing opportunity with redundancy. Some will benefit from change, while others will lose market share, status, responsibility or jobs. It is a pattern repeated over and again throughout human history, whether via the creation of things, like the plough, printing press, steam engine and computer, or via the modification of organisational and governance structures. New roles emerge, others obsolesce. Reliance on human and animal energy is supplanted by machine power. Long-held convictions are challenged and displaced by emergent knowledge. Meanwhile, learning continues for the curious and adaptive. New skills are acquired and workplace relevance is maintained. For the less adventurous, though, including the self-satisfied Establishment, the threat of loss provokes aggressively protective behaviours as people defend what they have and all the advantages the old status quo has bestowed upon them. Attempts at regeneration inevitably meet with resistance.
Yet new life is often rooted in the moribund matter of the old. This applies not only to vegetative life cycles but to those of business models, products, organisations and civilisations. What previously flourished eventually dies and collapses. But it can also seed new beginnings while still in bloom.
The Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare in Lyndon Johnson’s administration, John W. Gardner, observed in his 1964 book Self-Renewal, ‘When organizations and societies are young, they are flexible, fluid, not yet paralyzed by rigid specialization and willing to try anything once. As the organization or society ages, vitality diminishes, flexibility gives way to rigidity, creativity fades and there is a loss of capacity to meet challenges from unexpected directions.’ This is a cycle that many sports fans will have seen, probably more than once, when following their favourite teams. Gradual development suddenly accelerates delivering repeated successes until there is a levelling off then precipitous decline. It is what happened to England’s rugby union world champions of 2003, for example. Players were retained for too long after reaching the pinnacle of their sport and an opportunity for reinvention and the introduction of new talent and methods was missed. The same happens in business and government all the time.
Nevertheless, as Gardner noted, ‘In the ever-renewing society what matures is a system or framework within which continuous innovation, renewal and rebirth can occur.’ In Scale, theoretical physicist Geoffrey West elaborates on this point, arguing, ‘to avoid collapse a new innovation must be initiated that resets the clock, allowing growth to continue’. Elsewhere in sport, observers witnessed this happening to the England cricket team during 2022 as they underwent reinvention and renewal, which delivered unprecedented success.
The path followed is known as the second curve, which describes a process of evolution and transformation. As social philosopher Charles Handy suggests in his eponymous book on the subject, this second curve is representative of ‘all things human, of our own lives, of organisations and businesses, of governments, empires and alliances, of democracy itself and its many and varied institutions.’ Elsewhere, in The Empty Raincoat, Handy argues, ‘The discipline of the second curve keeps one sceptical, curious and inventive – attitudes essential in a time of change, and the best way of coping with the contradictions which accompany such a time.’

In effect, the second curve is an adaptation and enhancement of the S-curve, a model favoured by economists, scientists, business theorists and cultural historians. As both Kate Raworth in Doughnut Economics and her partner Roman Krznaric in The Good Ancestor highlight, the S-curve or sigmoid curve has had a lengthy history. This can be traced back to the early nineteenth century and mathematician Pierre Verhulst’s riposte to Malthusianism.
In his 1798 An Essay on the Principle of Population, the political economist Thomas Malthus observed that conditions that enabled improved food production usually resulted in exponential population growth, with a gradual start followed by a rapid, vertiginous increase. Abundance fostered consumption and well-being, which found a correlation in an increased number of births. The population growth rate followed the shape of a J-curve, and this had social and workforce implications. More people provided a greater source of labour but also had a detrimental impact on wages, exposing greater numbers to potential hardship. Financial precarity made them the most vulnerable to famine and disease.
Verhulst, however, argued that there was a self-limiting aspect to population growth, with the rate proportional to available resources. His logistic function added a plateau to the top of the exponential J-curve. Growth stopped with maturity. The sigmoid curve was born, and there has been tension between proponents of the two ever since.
The J points to an ever-upwards momentum, implying the availability of infinite resources just waiting to be extracted, exploited, accumulated and safeguarded for the benefit of the few. It presents a pattern that can inform our understanding of enclosure, imperial conquest, colonialism and industrialisation, culminating in the neoliberal policies and practices that have dominated Western economies and politics for more than forty years. It fosters short-termism, self-interest and the ceaseless pursuit of more, creating ever greater inequalities and causing irreversible environmental harm.
The S, by contrast, indicates the finite nature of global resources and maps a path towards eventual depletion. It was the latter that Everett Rogers would adopt in 1962 in his Diffusion of Innovations, arguing that while new ideas and technologies can spread rapidly once they have been taken up by early adopters, they eventually achieve market saturation. The S’s plateau is reached and there is little opportunity for further growth. Initial investment enables progress. This accelerates, peaks, dips, then ends. Decline is inevitable without adaptation and regeneration. This was the story told, too, by Donella Meadows and her co-authors in Limits to Growth, their 1972 report submitted to the Club of Rome. Even then they were warning that our planet can no longer support exponential population and industrial growth. Our resource consumption has to change.
The following year, in 1973, virologist and medical researcher Jonas Salk published his theory of population growth in The Survival of the Wisest. Rather than seeing the global population continuing to expand at the same rate of growth into the future, Salk argued that a sigmoid curve effect would be witnessed in the twenty-first century. Once there were between ten and eleven billion people on Earth, he estimated that population growth rates, having already slowed, would flatten. As we approached the inflection point, however, Salk believed that humankind would have to make a break from the values and practices of the past centuries, entailing a radical societal transition. We would have to allow enough time to address the big issues if we were to avoid a cataclysmic breakdown.
‘Sometimes change happens slowly,’ Rebecca Solnit notes in her essay ‘In Praise of Indirect Consequences,’ published in the 2023 collection Not Too Late. ‘Often, when it happens suddenly or appears to do so, it’s because the consequences are suddenly arriving for longtime change or organizing that previously seemed inconsequential, or the big change is the visible public effect of not-so-visible work.’ Salk’s observations appeared to imply a jump cut from one civilisational model to another. His own research was concurrent with that of palaeontologists and evolutionary biologists Niles Eldredge and Stephen Jay Gould who introduced the concept of punctuated equilibrium in a paper published in 1972. Having studied the fossil record, they argued that there was evidence which refined and updated established evolutionary theory regarding phyletic gradualism. Evolution, they suggested, was characterised less by incremental development, and more by ‘sudden’ (in terms of planetary and geological history) transformations followed by seemingly lengthy periods of stability. When an organism evolved it was like a jump cut, prompted by shifting ecosystem and environmental contexts, followed by little disruption until the next adaptive change was necessary.
Handy’s notion of the second curve identifies when that jump cut needs to happen to effect transformational change. Meanwhile, West’s study of organisms, cities and corporations highlights a recurrent pattern that is as pertinent at the level of the microcosm as the macrocosm. What occurs in a single-cell amoeba can also occur across an entire ecosystem; the one cannot be separated from the other. The history of humankind adds credibility to West’s thesis, punctuated as it is by the repeated rise and fall of civilisations and empires. Indeed, the lives of the Roman Empire, an ant, a star, a seagull or a Fortune 500 company all follow the same fundamental cycle.
Change must start within the constraints of the existing paradigm before effective transformation can happen. As Bill Sharpe and his co-authors write in a 2016 ‘Three Horizons’ article for Ecology and Society, ‘While it is common to represent societal change as succeeding S-curves, this does not draw attention to the fact that change always originates in the present.’ The second curve connects us to the past but makes us act with the future in mind. This is a form of cathedral or legacy thinking that depends on hope and care for others, both human and nonhuman. But right now we seem to be floundering as the current curve approaches its apogee. The global population continues to grow, as does our extraction and consumption, shifting from fossil fuels to other materials held in the earth and used in our smartphones, computers, solar panels and wind turbines. Governments, markets, regulatory bodies and international institutions appear to be struggling to keep up with the pace of technological change and its impact on how we organise, work and consume. This brings into question the effectiveness and viability of the Sustainable Development Goals and other global policies centred on objectives for 2030 and 2050.
Surveys like Jane’s are useful for making us focus on what is to come. But we require more than prognostication. We need activists, cathedral builders and seed planters who will shape that future, anticipating obstacles and mobilising us to navigate around them. We need people who will not simply accept our current environmental, sociopolitical and technological trajectory, but will catalyse the necessary change to enable the start of a second curve. Otherwise, the collapse of what we know today is almost inevitable as we overshoot what our planet can sustain.
Look beyond the things and focus on the connections between them. Then look beyond the connections and see the patterns they make.
— Tyson Yunkaporta, Sand TalkEverything is possible and nothing certain. There’s a kind of vertigo, exhilaration almost, that comes with moments like this, born of knowing that an old order of things has ended, that the world-as-was must be remade, or at least reconfigured.
— Tom McCarthy, The Making of IncarnationEvery civilisation begins with a genocide.
— Shehan Karunatilaka, The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida